Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 8.605550e-05 0.000103 0.000121 0.000142 0.000164 0.000188 0.000216
2024-10-27 6.558520e-05 0.000088 0.000113 0.000144 0.000179 0.000218 0.000265
2024-11-03 5.086322e-05 0.000074 0.000103 0.000138 0.000180 0.000229 0.000287
2024-11-10 4.151530e-05 0.000067 0.000098 0.000139 0.000189 0.000248 0.000321
2024-11-17 3.325428e-05 0.000058 0.000091 0.000135 0.000191 0.000258 0.000341
2024-11-24 2.823736e-05 0.000054 0.000089 0.000137 0.000200 0.000276 0.000373
2024-12-01 2.368435e-05 0.000049 0.000085 0.000137 0.000205 0.000289 0.000398
2024-12-08 1.845898e-05 0.000043 0.000079 0.000133 0.000205 0.000296 0.000414
2024-12-15 1.502267e-05 0.000038 0.000075 0.000131 0.000208 0.000305 0.000434
2024-12-22 1.212272e-05 0.000035 0.000072 0.000129 0.000211 0.000315 0.000454
2024-12-29 1.043947e-05 0.000033 0.000071 0.000131 0.000218 0.000331 0.000482
2025-01-05 8.338802e-06 0.000029 0.000067 0.000130 0.000221 0.000340 0.000501
2025-01-12 5.872107e-06 0.000025 0.000062 0.000126 0.000220 0.000346 0.000519
2025-01-19 4.766835e-06 0.000023 0.000062 0.000129 0.000230 0.000366 0.000554
2025-01-26 3.001779e-06 0.000019 0.000056 0.000123 0.000226 0.000368 0.000566
2025-02-02 2.248949e-06 0.000018 0.000055 0.000124 0.000233 0.000384 0.000597
2025-02-09 1.349058e-06 0.000015 0.000051 0.000120 0.000232 0.000389 0.000613
2025-02-16 9.890292e-07 0.000014 0.000050 0.000123 0.000241 0.000408 0.000646
2025-02-23 6.104213e-07 0.000012 0.000048 0.000122 0.000244 0.000419 0.000670
2025-03-02 2.683639e-07 0.000010 0.000044 0.000118 0.000243 0.000423 0.000685
2025-03-09 1.091271e-07 0.000009 0.000042 0.000116 0.000244 0.000431 0.000705
2025-03-16 3.212642e-08 0.000008 0.000040 0.000115 0.000247 0.000441 0.000726
2025-03-23 9.223157e-09 0.000007 0.000040 0.000117 0.000254 0.000457 0.000757